Available at: https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/3296
Date of Award
6-2026
Degree Name
MS in Statistics
Department/Program
Statistics
College
College of Science and Mathematics
Advisor
Kevin Ross
Advisor Department
Statistics
Advisor College
College of Science and Mathematics
Abstract
The hot hand is a polarizing topic in basketball analytics: fans, stakeholders, and even players themselves assert confidently their belief or disbelief in the idea that players who perform well will continue to do so over an extended period of time. Statistical research has been conducted since as early as 1985 to attempt to disprove or prove the existence of this phenomenon. More recent works have refuted the earliest objections to the hot hand’s existence, with conclusions aided by robust simulation techniques. In this work, we compare hypothesis tests using multiple simulation techniques to explore the hot hand at the team level in the WNBA. We find weak consensus of a hot hand for games played by the best teams in recent years and argue that findings are false discoveries.