Date of Award

6-2024

Degree Name

MS in Statistics

Department/Program

Statistics

College

College of Science and Mathematics

Advisor

Samuel J. Frame

Advisor Department

Statistics

Advisor College

College of Science and Mathematics

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine how the introduction of the Video Assisted Referee (VAR) system influenced the English Premier League (EPL). Since its implementation in the English Premier League in 2019, VAR has been a constant source of debate and controversy. Many studies have been done on the immediate impact of VAR on other elite professional soccer leagues, but the scope of results is very limited and due to be updated. The data for the ensuing analysis consists of 3800 matches played in the English Premier League during the five seasons before (14/15, 15/16, 16/17, 17/18, and 18/19) and five seasons after (19/20, 20/21, 21/22, 22/23, 23/24) the implementation of VAR. The following variables were recorded for each match: goals, fouls committed, penalty kicks awarded, penalty kicks scored, shots, offsides, red cards, yellow cards, tackles, and interceptions. Match statistics were web scraped from the website FBref (www.FBref.com) using software packages in R. Welch’s T-tests, Mann-Whitney U-tests, and generalized linear models were used at an unadjusted 0.05 significance level to compare average total match statistics in the English Premier League for seasons before and after the implementation of the VAR, across three different time periods used for comparison: (i) 1 year before and after VAR, (ii) 3 years before and after VAR, and (iii) 5 years before and after VAR. In the 1 year comparison, we found a statistically significant increase in the number of average total match fouls, and statistically significant decreases in the number of average total match offsides, tackles, and interceptions. In the 3 year comparison, we found a statistically significant increase in the number of average total match tackles, and statistically significant decreases in the number of average total match offsides and interceptions. In the 5 year comparison, we found statistically significant increases in the number of average total match goals, penalty kicks awarded, penalty kicks scored, yellow cards, and tackles, and statistically significant decreases in the number of average total match offsides and interceptions. However, we discuss several other notable rule changes since the implementation of VAR in the English Premier League that could have also affected these results. Although we did observe multiple statistically significant differences in certain match statistics, it would be statistically inappropriate to conclude that VAR has caused these changes. Further, due to the large sample size, these results are likely statistically significant, but not as practically significant in the real world. In conclusion, VAR does not seem to drastically affect gameplay overall in the English Premier League.

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