The Tidal Prism, Viable Eelgrass Habitat, And The Effects Of Sea Level Rise In Morro Bay

Author

Kaden A. CaliendoFollow

Available at: https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/2717

Date of Award

12-2023

Degree Name

MS in Civil and Environmental Engineering

Department/Program

Civil and Environmental Engineering

College

College of Engineering

Advisor

Stefan Talke

Advisor Department

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Advisor College

College of Engineering

Abstract

The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from the sea to an estuary from mean low to mean high tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels?

For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to measure spatially varying tidal elevations and datums within the bay. I utilized a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and tidal information to determine volumes of water in Morro Bay. Estimated sea level rise scenarios were utilized to project the 2022 tidal prism into the years 2050 and 2100. Additionally, I estimated the 2019 and 2022 viable eelgrass habitat area using the vertical growth range. I estimated the future potential viable habitat area in the years 2050 and 2100 using estimated sea level rise scenarios. Future projections were made assuming no change in bathymetry over time.

Different instruments used to obtain water levels yielded up to ~4 percent differences in the tidal prism estimate. Measurement uncertainty in the monthly tidal datums produced ~3 percent uncertainty within the tidal prism estimate. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2022 tidal prism was lower by ~2 percent. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2023 tidal prism estimated from two nearly co-located tidal instruments at the mouth of Morro Bay were higher by ~5 and ~7 percent, respectively. Spatially varying tidal datums in Morro Bay were found to affect the tidal prism by up to ~3 percent, compared to tidal prism estimates using only a tidal datum near the estuary mouth. However, the effect of spatially varying tidal datums on the tidal prism is the same order of magnitude as measurement uncertainty and is thus not statistically significant. As sea levels rise, the tidal prism is projected to increase by ~40 percent by 2100 from 2022 under the most extreme scenario, H++. Initially, as sea levels rise, the potential viable eelgrass habitat area will increase from the area in 2022 (1108 acres (4.47E+06 m²)). After sea levels rise to 1.5 m above 2000 levels, the potential viable eelgrass area will have reached a maximum area of 1938 acres (7.82E+06 m²). However, under SLR scenario H++, potential viable habitat area is predicted to decrease by up to 59% by 2100 from 2022.

The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from a bay to the seathe sea to an estuary from mean lowhigh to mean highlow tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels?

For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to obtain measure spatially varying tidal elevations and datums within the bay. I utilized a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and tidal information from NOAA to determine volumes of water in Morro Bay at the estimated monthly mean tidal datums. Estimated sea level rise scenarios were utilized to project the 2022 tidal prism into the years 2050 and 2100. Additionally, I estimated the 2019 and 2022 viable eelgrass habitat area using the vertical growth range. I estimated the future potential viable habitat area in the years 2050 and 2100 using estimated sea level rise scenariosfor various sea level rise scenarios.Future projections were made assuming no change in bathymetry over time.

Different instruments used to obtainwater levels yielded up to ~4 percent differences in the tidal prism estimate. Measurement uncertainty in the monthly tidal datums produced~3 percent uncertainty within the tidal prism estimate. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2022 tidal prism from Stilltek decreasedwas lower by ~2.05 percent. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2023 tidal prism estimated from the Stilltek gauge and the Cal Poly Coast Guard gaugetwo nearly co-located tidal instruments at the mouth of Morro Bay increased were higher by ~5.06 and ~6.777 percent, respectively. Spatially varying tidal datums in Morro Bay were found to affect the tidal prism by up to ~2.883 percent, compared to tidal prism estimates using only a tidal datum near the estuary mouth. However, the effect of spatially varying tidal datums on the tidal prism is the same order of magnitude as measurement uncertainty and is thus not statistically significant. As sea levels rise, the tidal prism is projected to increase by ~to a maximum of 40 percent by 2100 from 2022 under the most extreme scenario, H++. InitiallyInitially, as sea levels rise, the potential viable eelgrass habitat area will increase from the area in 2022 (1108 acres (4.47E+06 m²)). ABut after sea levels rise to 1.5 m above 2000 levels, the potential viable eelgrass areas will have reached the thresholda maximum area of 1938 acres (7.82E+06 m²). However, under SLR scenario H++, potential viable habitat area is predicted to decrease by up to 59% by 2100 from 2022.