https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/nres_rpt/9
Date of Award
12-2020
Degree Name
MS in Environmental Sciences and Management
Department
Natural Resources Management
College
College of Agriculture, Food, and Environmental Sciences
Advisor
Priya Verma
Advisor Department
Natural Resources Management
Advisor College
College of Agriculture, Food, and Environmental Sciences
Abstract
In 2015, Los Angeles County formalized its climate action goals, working to significantly reduce on-road CO2 emissions in unincorporated zones. A strategy outlined by the county’s Climate Action Plan, is to increase mixed-use development to significantly reduce on-road CO2 emissions. The goal of this study is to quantify the relationship between changes in urban density, population density and on-road emissions across 30 selected cities in Los Angeles County using time series data from 2013 to 2017. Per capita on-road CO2 emissions is calculated using commuting data as a proxy. Changes in urban development density is recorded in acres, categorized as medium-low and high density or mixed-use development for each city within its corresponding year. Population density is a factor of population per square mile for each city. Time-series data is analyzed to quantify the relationship between changes in population, urban development and subsequent emission levels. The results of this study conclude that increasing population density reduces on-road emissions more effectively than increasing building density does. A 1% increase in population density is associated with a decrease of .031% on-road emissions, while a 1% increase in high density development decreases on-road emissions by .0004%. Based on 2013-2017 trends, an increase of population density by 354% would predict a reduction of on-road emissions by 11%, working to reach climate action goals.