Date of Award

3-2011

Degree Name

MS in Civil and Environmental Engineering

Department

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Advisor

Robb Eric S. Moss

Abstract

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A methodology is presented for evaluating the potential surface fault displacement on reverse faults in a probabilistic manner. This methodology follows the procedures put forth for Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA). Empirical probability distributions that are central to performing a PFDHA are derived from field investigations of reverse faulting events. Statistical analyses are used to test previously assumed properties of scale invariance with respect to magnitude for normalized displacement. It is found that normalized displacement is statistically invariant with respect to magnitude and focal mechanism, allowing for the combination of a large number of events into a single dataset for regression purposes. An empirical relationship is developed using this single dataset to be used as a fault displacement prediction equation. A PFDHA is conducted on the Los Osos fault zone in central California and a hazard curve for fault displacement is produced. A full sensitivity analysis is done using this fault as a reference, to test for the sources of variability in the PFDHA methodology. The influence of the major primary variables is quantified to provide a future direction for PFDHA.

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