Date

6-2010

Degree Name

BS in Agricultural Business

Department

Agribusiness Department

Advisor(s)

Jim Ahern

Abstract

One of the agricultural products that the United States exports to England in large quantities is raisins. Raisin exports from the United States to England increased dramatically by 84% from 2007-2008 (USDA 2009). This study was sought to discover the cause of this large increase of raisin exports from 2007-2008, as well as to assess the current international raisin market.

To determine the cause of the increase in raisin exports to England, the top four raisin exporting countries in the world were analyzed to determine if their export quantities had a factor in the United States raisin exports to England. These four countries were Turkey, Iran, Chile, and the United States. Yearly trend analysis was performed on each country’s exports from 1987-2008 to determine the overall trend of their exports for the past 21 years. Projections were made for 2009-2012 based off each countries average growth. Substitute (prunes) and complementary product exports (pecans) from the United States to England from 1992-2008 were also analyzed to determine if they played a role in the large increase in raisin exports. The same trend analysis equations were performed on these exports and future projections were made for 2009-2012 based on average growth.

The results of this study showed an average increase in raisins exports from Chile, Iran, Turkey, and the United States of 9.75% over the past 21 years. Currently the United States is the second largest raisin producer in the world; however, according to the projections both Chile and Iran will surpass the United States in the next few years. Substitute and complementary product exports to England have also increased over the past 18 years, and it was concluded they did not have a significant effect on raisin exports. The research concludes that international agricultural trade will continue to increase as long as these products remain affordable to consumers.

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